Booking pace — are we ahead of last year?

Updated 2026-10-09 · compares today's bookings with the same point in time last year

Right now we are ahead of last year in 4 of 7 months (measured by money earned per home, per night).

Month	Are we ahead?	How full is it booked so far?	Average price per booked night	Money per home, per night	Where last year ended up	New bookings, last 2 weeks
October 2026 already started	▲ Ahead of last year	30.5% full last year now: 33.1%	$263 last year now: $222	$80 last year now: $73	36.7% full	248 nights last year: 178
November 2026 starts in 23 days	▼ Behind last year	11.9% full last year now: 15.3%	$306 last year now: $269	$37 last year now: $41	28.8% full	50 nights last year: 61
December 2026 starts in 53 days	▼ Behind last year	5.0% full last year now: 7.7%	$186 last year now: $266	$9 last year now: $20	21.0% full	24 nights last year: 28
January 2027 starts in 84 days	▲ Ahead of last year	4.7% full last year now: 4.8%	$312 last year now: $227	$15 last year now: $11	18.6% full	4 nights last year: 2
February 2027 starts in 115 days	▲ Ahead of last year	12.6% full last year now: 17.4%	$119 last year now: $79	$15 last year now: $14	43.2% full	56 nights last year: 5
March 2027 starts in 143 days	▼ Behind last year	11.7% full last year now: 11.6%	$294 last year now: $302	$34 last year now: $35	45.4% full	0 nights last year: 15
April 2027 starts in 174 days	▲ Ahead of last year	9.1% full last year now: 6.5%	$337 last year now: $341	$31 last year now: $22	48.1% full	38 nights last year: 2

Who's bringing in the bookings?

Nights booked so far for each month, split by who made the booking — compared with the same point last year. This is the cleanest view of how the team and our marketing are doing, separate from prices.

Month	Booked by our reservationists	Guests booking on our website	Booking sites (Airbnb, Vrbo, etc.)
October 2026	192 ▲ last year: 152	316 ▲ last year: 264	741 ▼ last year: 839
November 2026	121 ▲ last year: 54	111 ▼ last year: 116	251 ▼ last year: 294
December 2026	63 ▲ last year: 43	55 ▲ last year: 53	93 ▼ last year: 136
January 2027	129 ▲ last year: 51	22 ▼ last year: 43	47 ▲ last year: 45
February 2027	322 ▲ last year: 68	92 ▼ last year: 185	74 ▼ last year: 221
March 2027	265 ▲ last year: 191	64 ▼ last year: 118	182 ▲ last year: 108
April 2027	98 ▲ last year: 40	91 ▼ last year: 93	194 ▲ last year: 97

What is this page?

Every row is a month people can stay with us. For each one we ask a single question: do we have more business booked for that month than we had at this exact point last year? If yes, we're "ahead." If no, we're "behind."

Why compare with "the same time last year"?

Here's the trap this page avoids. Say it's August and you look at October. October only looks 13% full — scary! But October isn't done filling up; most people haven't booked their October trip yet. Comparing today's October with how October finished last year is unfair — it's comparing a cake that's still baking with one that's done. The fair question is: last year, on this same date in August, how full was October then? If we're fuller now than we were then, we're genuinely winning, even if the number itself looks small.

What each column means

Are we ahead? — Green ▲ means we're making more money per home per night than at this point last year. Red ▼ means less.
How full is it booked so far? — Out of the nights that are actually available to rent that month (every home live that month × every night, minus nights blocked by owners or maintenance), the percent already booked. The small gray number is where we stood at this same point last year.
Average price per booked night — Of the nights that ARE booked, the average price guests are paying per night. This is the "rates" side: it mostly moves with the market and our pricing, not with team effort.
Money per home, per night — Total booking money for the month, divided by every home and every night we have. This is the fairest single number: it can't be fooled by us adding or removing homes, and it captures both "how full" and "at what price." (Hotels call this RevPAR.)
Where last year ended up — How full that month finally got last year once all the bookings were in. It shows how much filling usually happens late, so a small number today isn't alarming.
New bookings, last 2 weeks — How many nights got booked for that month in just the past 14 days, next to the same 14-day window last year. This is our speed: even a month that's behind can be catching up fast.

How do I tell if it's the TEAM or just the MARKET?

Use the two middle columns together. "How full" is mostly people-driven — marketing bringing in leads and reservationists closing them. "Average price per booked night" is mostly market-driven. So:

Fuller than last year AND prices held or up → the team and marketing are genuinely winning.
Fuller than last year but prices down → good sign IF prices fell across the whole market too; a warning sign if we simply priced below everyone (then it's discounts doing the work, not people).
Less full but prices way up → we may be priced ahead of the market; not the team's fault.
Less full AND prices down → a real demand problem worth digging into.

The "Who's bringing in the bookings?" table is the most direct people-measure: reservationist-booked nights = the sales team, website bookings = our marketing, and booking-site nights = our listings on Airbnb/Vrbo. Each vs the same point last year.

Whose money is this?

The dollar figures are the homes' gross booking revenue — the full amount guests pay, most of which belongs to the homeowners. TideWatch's own income is our management commission (roughly a quarter of it) plus fees. We track the gross number here because it's the cleanest measure of demand coming in.

Things to keep in mind

Each month is divided by its OWN home count for its own year (derived from that month's actual calendars — the fleet was ~170 homes last summer and ~157 now), with owner-blocked and maintenance nights removed from "available." So both this year's and last year's percentages reflect the fleet as it really was.
Last year's "at this point" numbers are rebuilt from each booking's booked-on date, and the money figures are calibrated against Streamline's own Revenue Pacing report so they match what Streamline shows for the same date.
"Money" here is the guest's total booking price, including fees, spread evenly across the nights of the stay.
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